Over the past year, many condo buyers and presale purchasers have felt stuck in the same uncomfortable place: higher borrowing costs, softer resale conditions in certain segments, and a lot more uncertainty about pricing. That is why I pay close attention to what happens at the margins of the market—especially when sophisticated buyers start moving again.

A recent Toronto-focused story ( highlights a trend that is difficult to ignore: investment groups purchasing assignment contracts or presale units in bulk. Even though the article is about Toronto, the “signal” can matter nationally—because large buyers tend to step in only when the risk-reward picture improves.

In this post, I will explain why I see this activity as potential evidence that condo pricing is near (or at) a bottom, and I will add supporting context from the latest CREA 2026–2027 resale forecast update and broader supply data (https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/canadian-housing-market-stats/quarterly-forecasts/).

1) Why bulk buying can be a “bottoming” signal

When end-users and small investors are cautious, developers and assignment sellers often face a problem: they still need transactions to happen, but demand is thinner. That is when wholesale-style pricing appears—through bulk purchases, structured deals, or discounted assignment take-outs.

We have recently seen public discussion of groups with capital looking for exactly that kind of opportunity. For example, one report describes purchasers “showing up out of the woodwork” with millions of dollars to buy dozens of recently completed condominiums in one deal. 

This kind of activity tends to appear when:

  • Discounts become meaningful (relative to replacement cost, recent peak pricing, or expected stabilized value).
  • Time horizon shifts from “quick flip” to “hold and rent,” which reduces sensitivity to short-term price noise.
  • The supply pipeline is likely to tighten later, which increases confidence that downside is limited.

A LinkedIn post referencing the Toronto Star story frames it similarly: bulk buyers are looking to rent units and hold for a multi-year recovery window (three to five years). 

Important caution: bulk buying does not guarantee a bottom in every building or every submarket. It is a market-level behavioural signal, not a price guarantee.

2) Supportive data point: pricing dislocation is already visible in Toronto’s new-build segment

One of the clearest “late-cycle” signals is when recent presale pricing sits above what newly completed units are actually trading for.

Urbanation reported that in Q2 2025, presold units that reached occupancy averaged $1,187 per square foot, while resale selling prices in newer buildings averaged $903 per square foot—a gap of about $284 per square foot. 
They also noted record-high completed inventory available from developers and a meaningful level of standing inventory supply. 

When gaps like this exist, one of two things usually happens over time:

  1. Presale pricing softens (or stops rising) until it reconnects with end-market reality, and/or
  2. Resale pricing recovers as supply tightens and demand returns.

Bulk buyers are often attempting to position ahead of that reconnection.

3) What CREA’s 2026–2027 resale forecast implies for presales

CREA updated its forecast on January 15, 2026, projecting:

  • 494,512 MLS® sales in 2026 (+5.1% vs. 2025)
  • National average price $698,881 in 2026 (+2.8%)
  • 511,966 sales in 2027 (+3.5%) and average price $714,991 (+2.3%) 

More important than the headline numbers is why CREA expects improvement:

  • Pent-up demand, especially among first-time buyers 
  • A view that interest rates have likely fallen “far enough” to restore attainability for many buyers 
  • The risk that inventory can be drawn down faster if first-time buyers lead the recovery (because they remove listings without adding new supply) 
  • CREA also points to an October 29, 2025 Bank of Canada communication that rates were likely “about as good as they were going to get,” which can pull sidelined buyers forward 

How this connects to presales:

  • Presales ultimately need confidence in the future resale/ownership market—because end buyers, lenders, and developers all rely on it.
  • If resale demand improves into 2026–2027 (as CREA expects), it can reduce the probability that today’s softer condo conditions persist indefinitely.
  • At the same time, new condo supply is already showing signs of tightening (next section), which can make today’s pricing look more like a cyclical low in hindsight.

4) The supply side: fewer condo projects launching today can mean a tighter market later

CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook notes that housing starts are expected to slow from 2025 to 2027, primarily due to fewer condominium apartments being built. 
CMHC explicitly links this to slower presales, higher unsold units, and developers finding it harder to sell enough units to fund new projects. 

CMHC’s Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report similarly highlights:

  • Condominium apartment starts declined in most key markets as slower presales led to project delays and cancellations
  • Listings rising in several major markets (including Vancouver and Toronto), contributing to increased overall supply in the near term 

And CMHC’s January 16, 2026 release on 2025 housing starts notes that while starts were up year-over-year nationally, Toronto and Vancouver were down, and CMHC’s Chief Economist pointed to diminished viability of large residential towers and a shift toward smaller-scale projects. 

This is the “cycle mechanics” point:
If fewer condo projects launch today because presales are weak, completions can fall later. If demand recovers at the same time (even modestly), pricing power can return faster than most people expect.

5) A Vancouver / Metro Vancouver lens (why this matters locally)

Metro Vancouver is not Toronto, but the condo market here reacts to the same core forces: financing costs, end-user absorption, investor appetite, and construction viability.

We have already seen examples in British Columbia of developers using unusual sales tactics to move inventory—such as a one-day Surrey event offering roughly 25% below prior pricing, with substantial lineup demand and dozens of units sold shortly after. 
That does not mean every presale is “cheap,” but it does show that:

  • Buyers are price-sensitive, and
  • When pricing becomes compelling, demand still shows up quickly.

Practical takeaway: what I think is happening

Putting the pieces together, my interpretation is:

  1. Bulk buying and wholesale assignment activity is consistent with capital stepping in when discounts and long-term fundamentals look more attractive. 
  2. CREA expects a recovery in resale activity through 2026–2027, led in part by pent-up demand and improved attainability, which supports the idea that we are closer to the later stages of the condo downturn than the early stages. 
  3. The new condo supply pipeline is tightening because presales and project viability have weakened, which can set up the next phase of the cycle once demand normalizes. 

My view: presale pricing in many segments may be near a bottoming zone, meaning the downside from here may be more limited than it was a year or two ago—while the medium-term upside could improve if supply tightens and resale demand returns.

What this does not mean (important)

  • It does not mean every presale project is correctly priced today.
  • It does not mean assignments are “safe.” Assignment values can vary widely depending on completion timing, original contract price, building type, and current resale comparables.
  • It does not mean the market cannot be choppy in the short term.

This is market commentary, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Buyers should review contracts carefully and speak with qualified professionals.

If you are considering a presale purchase in 2026: a simple checklist

If you would like to treat this moment as “late-cycle,” focus on:

  • End-user quality (layout, livability, location, strata rules, parking and storage).
  • Pricing discipline (compare against current resale and newly completed product, not just launch marketing).
  • Developer track record and construction/financing viability.
  • Completion timing risk (longer timelines introduce more uncertainty).
  • Exit options (assignment restrictions, deposit structure, and financing plan).